The Case-Shiller index brought mostly good news from its May report this morning with one surprise. Seattle which shot up 13% from 2017-2018 has flattened out and seen a rare spring/summer drop of 1.2% from this May to last May 2018.
So, is Portland next? Portland is up 2.4% over the last 12 months. The short answer is that I expect to see appreciation flatten out in the July report, based on current RMLS data. Case-Shiller won’t report on this until the end of September due to the lag time in their reporting.
It’s still too early to call the top of the market with activity in Portland picking up and inventory still firmly in the sellers favor. Also of note are interest rates which remain low and might drop more adding more buyer power to the market.
The Portland real estate market tends to lag the national market which is up 3.4% over the last 12 months. After one of the longest recessions we’re still on a very long expansion run. And like bad news, good news doesn’t last forever. I don’t see a big crash around the corner, people still need good credit and money down unlike the last bull market in real estate from 2003-2007 and that’s good news for our future.