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Sales volume is a leading indicator for price. To help predict where the market is going I will be publishing sales volume trend reports and pending sales trends. The wisdom is that price follows volume so when you see a market trending higher in sales prices will soon follow up and when sales volume is low prices will stay flat or fall.

The closed sales volume is trending up and pending sales continue to rise but the volume is still down from the same months in 2008. Normally we see sharp increases in closed sales in the months of March and April that lead to a seasonal peak in June and July.

Wild cards: Low interest rates, stock market, continued rise in foreclosure listings & unemployment.

I’m predicting around 500 closed sales in Portland (areas 141, 142, 143 & 148) in May, hovering close to last months numbers. This is still far behind last years numbers so pricing will likely stay flat or slide slightly. First time buyers are still the strongest segment in the market and well maintained homes under 275k account for many of the sales.

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