No One Likes Surprises: The Election and Portland Real Estate

by | Nov 15, 2016 | Articles, Market Reports

No one likes surprises, and for most people in Portland, Oregon the election results were a shock. In my experience when people are in shock they often pull back from making big life decisions, such as buying or selling a home.

The stock market in the days following the election has hit all time highs. This positive response to a Trump win is also a surprise as most pundits claimed it would be met with an immediate recession.

The bond market is getting hammered and interest rates have risen sharply with an expected rate increase in the Fed funds rate in December. It’s worth noting though that rates are still very low.

My prediction is that the real estate market in Portland will go through a short term pause to deal with the surprise of the Clinton/Trump election results but will return to normal activity in the Spring of 2017. I also predict that we will have a typical seasonally-adjusted, slower Winter 2016/2017.

The factors that drive real estate, namely supply and demand, are still pointing to increased prices in the Portland market. The State of Oregon Economics office is predicting record in-migration and population growth over the next seven years and we are still not in an over-building phase.

To sum up: expect a moment of pause and slower real estate activity followed by a normal up swing in early Spring 2017 for Portland real estate.

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